DRAM winter is coming? DRAM prices will fall 3%~8% in the fourth quarter
2021-10-09

According to market sources, DRAM contract prices will fall more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2021 due to sharp fluctuations in spot prices.

According to the latest survey by TrendForce, after the peak production season in the third quarter, the oversupply ratio of DRAM began to increase in the fourth quarter. In addition, basically the DRAM inventory in the hands of each end product customer has exceeded the safe water level, which will weaken the subsequent willingness to stock up.

According to the digitimes report, from the current situation of various products, the spot price of DDR4 and DDR3 chips has dropped to the lowest point in nearly 6 months, and the price has dropped by more than 20% since July. In addition, the average spot price of PC DRAM has been lower than the contract price in the third quarter.

Prices are falling in all segments, including server DRAM, and DRAM contract prices are expected to drop by nearly 10% in the fourth quarter, the sources said. Among them, PC DRAM contract prices will drop by 5-10%, higher than previously expected; server DRAM contract prices will drop by 5%.

In addition, memory module company sources said that DRAM contract prices are expected to continue to decline in the first quarter of 2022, but there will be signs of gradual price recovery around the end of the second quarter.

"As chipmakers remain cautious about capacity expansion, DRAM prices are unlikely to reach the lows in 2020 and will return to growth trajectory from the second half of next year," the source added.

TrendForce predicts that the average price of DRAM will start to decline in the fourth quarter, and some products with excessive inventory will fall by more than 5% in a single quarter, and the overall average price of DRAM will drop by 3% to 8%.